Praise for Thirty Tomorrows:
“Milton Ezrati, fantastically well-versed in international finance, has a rare gift for explaining complex economic trends in clear and compelling prose. In Thirty Tomorrows he brings his formidable knowledge to bear on one of the greatest challenges facing America and Europe. He shows that aging populations need not spell doom for economic growth. His fascinating study does not form simply important but vital reading.”—Jacob Heilbrunn, Editor, The National Interest
“A bold assessment of what population aging and globalization will mean to the way we work, organize production, and accumulate knowledge and wealth in the 21st century”—Dr. Isaac Ehrlich, Chair of the Department of Economics at SUNY Buffalo and Editor-in-Chief, The Journal of Human Capital
“Veteran investment strategist and economist Ezrati (Kawari) offers a smart, readable synthesis of globalization and how Europe, Japan, and other nations have come to terms with it. More of a history than a projection, the book begins with demographics that establish that though the populations are aging—a cause for concern—they are healthier. He then turns to global events and economic trends during the last three decades, and reviews the transformations in China with an even hand. As the biggest holder of U.S. foreign debt, China, Ezrati argues, should reform its currency policy. He issues a warning about the influence of little-known sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and their power to shape political events. Along the way, Ezrati considers how Texas and New England have been reinvented through high-tech innovation; revisits early 19th-century British economist David Ricardo’s idea of comparative advantage; and documents a post-industrial employment surge pin cable TV workers. Affirming the economic power of developed nations, he takes as an example the vaunted Indian software and programming industry, basic and small-scale compared to the U.S. Ezrati covers familiar themes and events, but his panoramic, balanced perspective provides valuable insights into economic challenges ahead.”—Publishers Weekly
“Thirty Tomorrows is highly relevant today, as it addresses not only the implications of global demographic change, but also ties it to the many challenges that policy makers face.”—Donald C. Winter, Secretary of the Navy, retired.
“A veteran economist and money manager looks ahead at the currents and countercurrents likely to roil the global economy in the next thirty years.
Demographics is destiny, writes Ezrati (Kawari: How Japan’s Economic and Cultural Transformation Will Alter the Balance of Power Among Nations, 1999, etc.), or at least “as close as one can come where economics and finance are concerned.” Thus, the aging populations of America, Japan and the European Union countries will drive most of the adjustments necessary to ensure prosperity. Labor shortages in these developed nations, only partly ameliorated by immigration, will leave mass production to the emerging economies of China, India and Brazil, while the old powerhouses will increasingly depend on innovation and refinement for their economic successes. Trade and increased globalization will work to relieve the pressure imposed by demographics but only if the developed nations remove needless impediments—brainless government subsidies, protectionist policies, shortsighted regulation—to growth, intensify their research and development efforts, improve their educational institutions and provide training for workers bound to be displaced by the new environment. At the same time, developing economies must broaden and integrate their economies. These changes, Ezrati acknowledges, won’t be painless—we’ve already experienced the huge financial booms/busts, the widening income gaps and the erosion of the middle class that come with more intense levels of globalization—and nations like Russia, Venezuela and the Gulf States that rely on oil exports for their current prosperity are at special risk, but attempts to restrain globalization will likely cause worse hardship. He concludes by explaining why the U.S. is the only viable candidate to lead the world into the new era, offering recommendations as to how America can shore up its principal role and setting out historical reasons to be hopeful about success.
A balanced analysis of the future shape of the world’s increasingly interdependent economies.”—Kirkus Reviews, March 15, 2014 Issue
Praise for Kawari:
“A timely and thoughtful analysis.” —Michael H. Armacost, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan
“A rattling good read.” —Brian Reading, author of Japan: The Coming Collapse
“Ezrati is bolder and more speculative.” —Foreign Affairs
“A thought-provoking look at what might be in store.” —San Jose Mercury News